Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
