Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.

Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process

Multiple figures on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avert any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of sources also shared fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.