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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence wins the award. In practice, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or merely the greatest shock.

But this year's competition is distinctly different. The group of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference winners fading and longtime underperformers ascending together. During an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this wild and thrilling season, he's competing with multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to spin big plays from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a normal year!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, he bet on newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still